Thursday, January 6, 2011

2010: Reality debunks early airport predictions

It is now 2010. This was was supposed to have been an aviation milestone, according to long-ago predictions.

By 2010 the number of people traveling by air was supposed to be equal in all parts of the Chicagoland region. That prediction was made in 1987 and was known as the equal propensity to travel theory.

Equal Propensity to Travel Theory

This illusive theory appeared with no explanation of its origin, yet was alluded to throughout the pages of the Chicago Airport Capacity Study, by Illinois Department of Transportation consultants Peat, Marwick and Main.

The theory was derived by sub-consultants, the al Chalabi Group, Ltd., the husband and wife consulting team – Margery and Suhail al Chalabi – who have worked for the State of Illinois on the 'third airport' project since its inception.

The equal propensity to travel theory was used to exaggerate a trend of population, income, and jobs south of the city which contributed to a justification that a new airport should be built south of Chicago.

One asssumption, then another, and another, ...

The initial assumption that there would be an equal propensity to travel throughout the Chicago region by 2010 was merely a planning tool, one of many assumptions built into the computer model from which other predictions were generated. That assumption helped generate other forecasts, such as:  the number of passengers that would use a new airport; the number of aircraft operations that would be served; as well as how many direct, indirect, or induced jobs the project would create. It just so happened that the first crystal ball was aimed at 2010.

The equal propensity to travel theory did generate some controversy. One of the members of the technical committee, which might be considered a 'stakeholder,' in today's terms, called the theory, "false."

Members of the Chicago Association of Commerce and Industry, which later became the Chicago Chamber of Commerce explained, "The recent growth patterns in the Chicago region have increased travel propensity in the areas closer to O'Hare, not led to equal travel propensity."

The irony

The equal propsensity to travel theory was a prediction that is very different from today's reality, where some south suburban communities are considered to be among the poorest in the state.

It is ironic that the state's early prognostications that point to a need for a new airport to serve a burgeoning south suburban population stand in stark contrast to both the reality and the claims being made today by south suburban leaders. They claim that what is needed are the jobs and economic development that a new airport would provide.

The loudest voice of support for an airport near Peotone has come from U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. who may have never even heard of the equal propensity to travel theory. After all, when it was being written into the fabric of 'third' airport history, Jackson was in college in North Carolina. It wasn't until long after, around 1993, that Jackson became interested in the project. It wasn't until two years later that he was elected to Congress.

Your tax dollars at work 

The al Chalabi Group, Ltd. who first derived the 2010 prediction, remains on the state's payroll as they have for the past 23 years. They have a contract with the state transportation department at least until December 2011.  The consultants continue to make predictions for the Peotone project. Their latest, done in 2007, extrapolates figures into 2030.

They state that by 2030 there will be 4.5 million passengers using the South Suburban Airport. That prediction doesn't seem possible either, since the project is not yet approved by the Federal Aviation Administration.

The late State Sen. Aldo DeAngelis explained at the time, that the main goal in getting the report approved was so the process could move forward to the next study. DeAngelis, who was once considered the Godfather of the third airport, was one of the decision-makers that approved the report despite its criticisms.

The equal propensity to travel theory was never discussed again in subsequent airport studies.

George Ryan wants to leave prison to visit critically ill wife

George RyanGeorge Ryan, the convicted felon that once served as Illinois' Governor wants to be released from prison to visit his gravely ill wife, perhaps for the very last time. A debate rages about whether or not Ryan should be allowed to leave the federal penitentiary in Terre Haute, IN to travel to his home town of Kankakee to be by Lura Lynn's bed side.
There is no doubt Ryan is devoted to his wife of fifty years. He loves her and would like nothing more than to share her final moments with her.

While George Ryan's reality includes compassion for his wife, that compassion never spilled over onto the public for which he took an oath to serve. Instead, he governed with arrogance and ego.

Ryan's trying to get out of jail now is just one more in a long line of attempts to gain his freedom. When he was convicted of wrongdoing, another ex-governor—James Thompson—Ryan's pro-bono lawyer tried every available legal maneuver to keep Ryan from serving the 6 1/2 year sentence imposed upon him. Just a few weeks ago, Thompson tried to get Ryan released from prison to be with his wife. The judge ruled against it.

Ryan's initial sentence was based on a mere sampling of his deeds during his career as a public official. There is no way that all of Ryan's questionable actions could be presented in a court of law during his trial.

I know George Ryan. I recall once asking him a question, in my role as a news reporter for Ryan's home town paper. For a brief instant, he looked at me. I saw a cold, look of contempt in his eyes before he turned and walked away, dismissing me without acknowledging my presence. He didn't have to answer me. He was the governor. I was nothing more than a nuisance to him.

I've seen Ryan make decisions that hurt people. Ryan was the first to authorize the state tobuy land for a new airport near Peotone, one that even after 25 years, is not approved by the Federal Aviation Administration and for which no regional consensus has or will ever be reached.

But to move the project forward, Ryan made a deal with a friend of his whereby the state department of transportation would buy the unsold lots in his high-priced subdivision, even though the property wouldn't be used for the project. The act of buying the first ground 'for the airport' even though it was later intended to be sold as unnecessary to the project, was enough to scare people into selling their land to the state. The airport wasn't needed, yet Ryan didn't flinch when people pleaded with him to end the airport nightmare that had been discussed since the 1960's. Some of those people suffered health issues not unlike those of Ryan's own wife. Yet, he didn't care about their plight. So many good people died trying to fight the scourge that he perpetuated. There was nothing they could do to protect the land that in some cases had been in their families for generations, because the big, bad, governor wanted to take it from them.

When George Ryan's actions were indirectly responsible for the death of the six Willis children, Ryan showed no remorse. Even if that accident wasn't Ryan's fault directly, it did shine a light on how Ryan ran the Secretary of State's office.

For me, direct blame isn't the issue. Ryan's attitude is the issue. He didn't care that two people had to bury their six children.

I'm genuinely sorry that Lura Lynn Ryan is so ill. Who knows if she is conscious, or if she would even know if her husband was by her bedside? In her near-death state, her mind will likely cause her believe he is with her. He doesn't need to be physically there.

George Ryan needs to pay the price—the complete price for his deeds. And that includes another three years in prison. He does not deserve special privilege.

Post script

Ryan did spent about two hours with his ailing wife, according to reports. The decision to allow him to be released from prison for that period was customarily assigned to the prison warden, and is not an uncommon occurrence.
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